Erich Stauffer

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  • June 2011 Interest and Exchange Rate Forecast

    The June 2011 RBS Interest & Exchange Rate Forecast (PDF) is out.

    Interest Rates

    The Bank of England did not raise rates in June, despite higher inflation due mostly to commodity prices. In order to curb inflation, their Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may raise interest rates, but it depends on the strength of demand in the United Kingdom.

    In the US, as quantitative easing (QE2) draws to an end, the Federal Reserve is turning to how and when it starts to tighten policy. The April minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate that it has a preference to lead with interest rate hikes, which would curb inflation, rather than begin unwinding its quantitative easing program (though options for this were discussed). RBS expects the Fed to wait until the first half of 2012 before raising interest rates.

    The European Central Bank (ECB) left rates on hold at 1.25% in June, but by using the code word “strong vigilance” President Trichet signalled a second hike for the year at the next ECB meeting in July. With inflation at 2.7% in May and above the 2% ECB target for six consecutive months, the ECB Governing Council will justify an increase in interest rates despite signs of a slowdown in the euro area. ECB President Trichet suggested the establishment of an EU Ministry of Finance with veto rights over member states’ specific spending decisions as a first step towards closer fiscal union. While this will be of little help in the fight against the current sovereign debt crisis, it may be an issue to be tackled by Mario Draghi (Italy) in October, who has received the support of France, Germany and the ECB to succeed Trichet as President.

    Exchange Rates

    The euro plummeted from 1.49 against the USD to 1.40 in mid-May – a two month low, while GBP/EUR jumped to 1.15. But much of the lost ground was regained with an outline agreement for further financial aid to Greece (though the outline fails to address the long term issue regarding the sheer scale of Greece’s debt burden). Moreover, the hawkish ECB continues to provide support from a yield perspective, signalling a second rate hike in July, while all other central banks sit firmly on their hands. The long term impact of rising interest rates could prove euro negative if it disrupts the recovery in the periphery economies, but this factor has certainly been supportive in the short term. The relative attractiveness of sterling and the dollar has been hit by softening growth/interest rate expectations and jitters over the size of the debt overhang facing these regions. With macro data pointing towards a further slowdown in UK and US economic activity, growth expectations have also been scaled back. Moody’s warned the UK that 16 banks could face a downgrade to its credit rating if a further slowdown in growth put the government’s fiscal austerity plans in jeopardy. Meanwhile, US policymakers continue to bicker over an extension to the Federal debt ceiling and a long term deficit adjustment plan. GBP/USD has been range bound between 1.60-1.65 for the past month and we continue to expect it to remain at these levels which also look to be close to fair value. JPY has appreciated against the USD and is approaching levels south of the 80 mark which triggered multilateral currency intervention in March.

  • Exchange Rate Forecast

    Exchange Rate Forecast covers European currencies like the Euro, currency converter forecasts, currency charts, American currency, African currencies, US dollar exchange rate history, long term currency exchange rate forecasts, cross-currency swaps, and balance of payment (BOP) exchange rates. If you’re not sure what any of this means, don’t worry, I’ll cover those things here on Ex-Forex. Exchange Rate Forecast was originally ran and created by the author of Economy Watch, which covers the world economy, investment, banking, and credit cards for Australia, Canada, India, Ireland, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US).

    Many people search for exchange rate forecasts during the week to guide them on Forex, which is a decentralized over-the-counter financial market for trading currencies. This currency exchange marketplace assists international trade and investment, by allowing businesses to convert one currency to another currency, such as US dollars to British Pound Sterling. It also supports direct speculation in the value of currencies, and the carry trade (investors borrowing low-yielding currencies and lending or investing in high-yielding currencies), which is a form of speculation on the change in interest rates in two currencies.

  • The Entrepreneurial Mind Shift

    Is working for yourself or for others more risky?

    That’s the question Hannah Kaufman Joseph tried to answer in the Indianapolis Business Journal. She has had the somewhat unique experience of interviewing new entrepreneurs about their motivations after they come to her firm for legal help in setting up a new business. What she found was that the most common response to why someone wanted to own their own business was to have “some degree of control” over risk, even if the risk can be inherently greater than working for someone else. This is a result in a recent paradigm shift workers are going through where they no longer see employment as risk-free.

    Whether or not you have been laid off, fired, or downsized, you probably know someone who has and the culmination of those events have slowly shaved away confidence in the workplace enough to make going out on your own seem less risky and more controllable. Joseph also notes that sometimes, “People are mad.” Even if they haven’t been laid off or fired they have been asked to do more with less. Many companies stopped giving raises or cut pay or benefits. This has given people an excuse to do something they may have always wanted to, but were afraid to try.

    Joseph’s main point is that, “Individual performance is the key indicator of success.” Your business grows or falters in large part due to your own attitude. Measure success and be willing to change and environmental factors matter less.

    One if the things I hated the most about working for someone else was the time clock. I didn’t quite agree with rules about tardiness as long as I got my work done. Times are easily tracked though and so late arrivals are easy targets for HR and managers. Joseph finishes her article with, “When you own your own business, you are never off the clock. But it is your clock.”

  • Should Amazon.com Go Brick-and-Mortar?

    Those who remember walking into a Service Merchandise may recall the assortment of toys, electronics, and fine goods where the selection was larger because there was only one of everything. That’s because you ordered your item in-store and picked it up from a warehouse in the back. It was the pre-Internet version of Amazon.com and it could be Amazon’s next move.

    On May 15, 2001, Steve Jobs led a group of journalists from a hotel in Tysons Corner, Virginia to Apple’s first store in the second level of Tysons Corner Center for a commemorative press event. The first two Apple Stores opened on May 19 in Tysons Corner and later the same day in Glendale, California at Glendale Galleria. Around the same time Service Merchandise was going through Chapter 11 bankruptcy and by the beginning of 2002 they would be out of business. Apple now has over 200 stores and Service Merchandise is now online-only. So what can we learn from Apple’s success and Service Merchandise’s failure and what does it have to do with Amazon?

    Service Merchandise was a catalog showroom, which meant it showcased a lot of high-end goods and sold them to people who may not have bought them otherwise. I can remember salivating over their boomboxes and Casio watches, things I would never have been exposed to otherwise. This is how the Apple Store has leveraged their retail outlets. Apple used the iPod to get people familiar with Apple products and to come into the store. There they were exposed to Mac computers and any new innovation that came along (think iPhone and iPad). By situating themselves in high-end shopping centers, Apple made sure that the trend-setters were well taken care of and that is partly why there are sometimes more employees inside an Apple Store than customers. What if Amazon opened a catalog showroom in upscale malls around the country like in Glendale, California, Carmel, Indiana, or Manhattan, New York, and showcased their upscale goods – the ones they stock, but people don’t see – and helped change the way people think about Amazon from being an online bookstore or even an online version of Wal-Mart to being the best way to buy anything – including high end goods like watches and jewelry. Could a retail outlet store like Service Merchandise do that for Amazon.com?

    Let us know what you think in the comments.

  • Google Tools for Business

    Google Maps

    If your website is for a local business, you might want to consider integrating it with Google Maps. Google Maps uses query string parameters to pass information to the servers to change the information you see on the webpage. For example, you could have a map show directions to your business from wherever the browser is located, by gathering the information and passing it on to Google.

    Google Apps

    It’s out of beta and you need not be scared of the cloud anymore. While you still may want to have local backups, Google Apps is a great alternative to Microsoft Exchange and Outlook. But for those who still want to use Outlook, the beauty of it all is that you still can because Google Apps has POP access.  It even has IMAP access for use with Blackberrys.  Google Docs is a great feature too, but is not as robust as Microsoft Office.

    Google AdWords

    If you are tired of waiting for SEO to kick in, Google AdWords is a great way to get your website to the top of the pile nearly instantly. You’ll pay money up front, but the goal is to get more visitors – which you will do – so be prepared by having a website that is optimized for conversions, gets to the point right away, and clearly directs the user to the action you want them to take. Once that is in place, AdWords can only help.

  • GPS Devices at Pilot vs. Amazon vs. Waze

    GPS devices at Pilot range from $299 to $449 with two models for $349. They also have the new Monster Rehab, which is Iced Tea, Lemonade, and Energy in a can with a black-top lid. It’s delicious. Another thing I saw there was a new type of Dorito-type chip called Tias, which looked delicious, but I didn’t buy any. I did buy two Monster Rehabs though because they are so delicious. It’s probably better than all energy drinks combined.

    gps-devicesThese GPS devices are mostly for navigation – for truckers and other travelers. Most of them are dash-mountable, but that’s because they don’t have birthing bays to lay in. The GPS navigators sold at Pilot include Garmin, Cobra, and Rand McNally. Compare these prices to the ones found at Amazon.com:  a Garmin nüvi 1450LMT 5-Inch Portable GPS Navigator with Lifetime Map & Traffic Updates is $179, a Cobra NAV One 5000 5-inch Bluetooth Portable GPS Navigator is $425, and a Rand McNally 528881469 7-inch Intelliroute TND 700 Truck GPS is $499.

    In most cases it makes more sense to get your energy drinks from Pilot and your GPS devices from Amazon, but if you have a smart phone, check out Waze.

    Waze: Free GPS Navigation App for Android

    Waze GPS is a free turn-by-turn GPS navigation app with user-generated, real-time traffic updates and social networking elements. It’s the first dynamic traffic platform which combines GPS, open-source software, and a community of drivers.

    Waze users share real-time information on quickly changing, dynamic road conditions such as slow traffic, road-blocking accidents, police speed traps, and construction. Waze collects this information, analyzes it, and gives Waze drivers the most optimal routes to their destinations, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

    Waze is a Not Just an Android App, It’s a Smart App

    Commuters normally can drive more than one route to arrive at their destinations, but without information, they don’t really know which route is best at any given moment? With Waze, you just enter your beginning and destination addresses, drive three to four times along different routes, and Waze creates the most time-efficient route for that moment in time – saving you time and money.

    How Waze Uses Social Networking

    Drivers using Waze can easily join or create groups, allowing members to view each other on the map and communicate with each another while on the road. Use Twitter to tweet your activities to your followers on Waze, and connect to Facebook to see all of your Waze-using Facebook friends around you on the map.

    Waze Free GPS NavigationYou will need A GPS-enabled Android smartphone and a data plan to receive and deliver real-time road information for your preferred route.

    Here’s what one reviewer said, “My commute is rather long, so this app is very helpful. It learns your preferred routes. It tells you about problems, even on roads that aren’t monitored by fixed systems. It lets you report problems you encounter. Map corrections are completed within a day or two of being reported, and you get an email when a problem you reported has been corrected. I run it any time I’m driving, even when I don’t need directions,” while another said, “This is the only app I can’t go a day without. I love being able to see a user’s report on an accident/hazard ahead and now understand why traffic is not moving. Routes are sometimes off a bit, but as more people use this the better they will get.”

  • iPhone App Builders

    iOS apps for the iPhone, iPod Touch, and the iPad are in strong demand right now, but not everyone knows how to make one, or even how to find someone to make one for them.

    A friend of mine pointed me towards Mobile Roadie, which has made apps for “the world’s top publishers and brands,” like Taylor Swift and the Miami Dolphins. Their main selling point is that they make making an iOS app easy using templates. The trade-off is that you may end up getting an app that looks like a template – or worse, just like someone else’s app. But this is how web design got started once it became more accessible and popular to make your own web sites. Not everyone could code their own web sites and not everyone can code their own iOS apps, so then, like now, template businesses are helping users create things that they couldn’t otherwise do.

    Other sites like Appiction will make an app for you using their designers and coders, but the price is higher. Expect to pay in the thousands for a custom-developed web app, much like you would for a custom-designed web site. Remember, the app is going to be used by hundreds, if not thousands of people – and if you’re lucky – millions. So you want your app to work well, be pleasing to the eye, and have a good interface – basic rules of design there. To compare different iPhone app developers and get a quote, visit iphoneappquotes.com.

    If you’re interested in developing your own iOS app, The Daleisphere has an article about how to start. He goes over the hardware, software, and knowledge you’ll need to get started. Basically, it takes a Mac (you can’t write iOS apps on a PC*), an Objective-C (Cocoa) writer, and an iOS app compiler. He references several books and guides to help you get started and has several key links you’ll need like where to get signed up to become a developer. The most popular iPhone development book on Amazon.com is Beginning iPhone 4 Development: Exploring the iOS SDK so that is something to get you started.

    *You can write iOS apps on a PC, but it violates the EULA with Apple (because you have to jailbreak an iPhone), however for those willing to accept that risk, there are programs like DragonFireSDK that will help you write iOS apps on a PC as long as you know C/C++.

  • Stay Connected with USB Backup Power

    Never miss a client’s call again when you carry along a simple, yet powerful USB battery device.

    USB charging has been around for a while, but devices that both store and charge other mobile devices are just starting to come into their own. These USB battery packs are small, affordable, and can keep you from losing a call or the last level on Angry Birds. Almost any device that can power itself off of a USB port can use one of these devices. The one exception is the iPad, which requires a lot more watts, but there are even USB battery packs for that if you need it.

    Think about it, you protect your PC with a UPC battery backup, why not your mobile phone, which is usually equal to or more important than your PC when it comes to the day-to-day operations of your business. How much would you be lost without power to your cell phone? Just keep it charged and keep a backup charged. Think business continuity and be prepared with a USB battery pack extender. It’s the right thing to do. It just makes sense for your business.

  • Mixer Sales Hits Page One of Google

    Mixer Sales asked Erich Stauffer to help them get better search engine rankings for their primary keywords, best mixers and mixer sales – and now Mixer Sales is ranking on the first page of Google for ‘mixer sales’!

    While Mixer Sales ranks #6 for the keyword ‘mixer sales’,  they currently don’t rank in the top 100 for ‘best mixers’, which means we still have some work to do, but we believe in celebrating the small victories.   We also helped them setup what we call a ‘sticky page’ which is a page that stays on top of WordPress blog post listings. This is named after ‘sticky posts’, but uses a page instead of a post to prevent double posts on the front page. Going forward we’re going to recommend on product marketing sites like this a “start with sticky” policy because it provides a kind of launching pad for all of the other posts, which can sometimes get lost. Users can still find posts using categories or tags, but for the most important posts, they should be linked to from the sticky page and possibly even through the top navigation bar.  Most of the time we will start off with allowing WordPress to automatically display pages, but as the site ages and becomes more concrete, we’ll go back and manually manipulate the page navigation to add posts and other keywords for SEO reasons.

    Overall we see good things for Mixer Sales and wish them well in their endeavor to help people find the best deals on kitchen stand mixers, which have become more and more popular over the last several years.